Tests of Periodic and Quasi-periodic Fluctuations in Paleoclimate Data Sets

By James Otto and James A. Roberts.

Published by The International Journal of Climate Change: Impacts and Responses

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Article: Print $US10.00
Published online: January 5, 2017 $US5.00

Embedded in various events on Earth are proxy data that allow us to map the temperature of the Earth over many years. In this work the temperature fluctuations for a number of proxy data sets were analyzed to express any periodic and quasi-periodic fluctuations in the data sets. The changing patterns in tree ring growth and temperature fluctuations in Greenland ice core samples, along with other data, were tested with a goal to understanding periodic and quasi-periodic patterns in paleoclimate variability. Some quasi-periodic signatures have been identified that predate the Industrial Revolution, during much of which direct data on temperature are not available. Earth temperature appears to have a number of periodic and quasi-periodic intervals that indicate both global warming and global cooling cycles. From comparisons of temperature proxy data for varying time periods a number of “quasi-cycles” have been identified that appear to be periodic while being frequency modulated. The well-known sunspot cycle of eleven years persists in all of the proxies studied that had data spanning a decade or less. In addition, long-term time intervals show both cycles extending from about 600 years to 500,000 years during which the temperature increased and decreased in a quasi-periodic way. From a study of the long-term changes, a base can be established upon which recent green-house gas effects on temperature can be impressed.

Keywords: Climate Impacts, Historical Climate Trends, Time Series, Global Temperature Change Periodic Change, Quasi-Periodic Changes

International Journal of Climate Change: Impacts and Responses, Volume 9, Issue 1, pp.41-51. Article: Print (Spiral Bound). Published online: January 5, 2017 (Article: Electronic (PDF File; 1.183MB)).

James Otto

Doctoral Student, Physics, University of North Texas, Denton, Texas, USA

Dr James A. Roberts

Professor of Physics and Material Sciences, Physics, Director of the Center for Nonlinear Sciences, University of North Texas, Denton, Texas, USA


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