Earth 2075 – CO2: I. A Simple Forecasting Model

By Robert C. Fry, Madeline Ison, Sambhudas Chaudhuri, Kenneth Klabunde, Gregory Fry, Barry Wroobel and Michael Routh.

Published by The International Journal of Climate Change: Impacts and Responses

Format Price
Article: Print $US10.00
Published online: December 11, 2015 $US5.00

In this first paper of an EARTH 2075 – CO2 series, re-analysis of CO2 data compiled by the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (CDIAC-ORNL; 2012 version 1.5 carbon cycle budget) for ocean biosphere and solubility sinks, the land biosphere sink, and land-use change emissions using a combined surface exchange (CSE) parameter indicates that average CSE was a net CO2 sink from 1959–2011. On average, combined natural ocean and land sinks exceeded land-use change emissions by a growing margin from 1959–2011. However, anthropogenic CO2 emissions from fossil fuel consumption and cement production reached 9.9 GtC/yr in 2013 and are rising faster than the observed expansion in natural sinking capacity. The net impact is continued rising of atmospheric CO2 accumulation at ~2 ppm/year. The impact of rising fossil fuel and cement emissions on atmospheric CO2 accumulation is projected with a simple bookkeeping, trend-extrapolation model which estimates, projects, and compensates for natural sinks and land-use change emissions. The model further accounts for the impact of future emissions cap-and-reduction programs and/or future high-impact geoengineering capture of atmospheric CO2. Our purpose in developing this model was to enable forecasting of the impact of aggressive geoengineering capture in a second paper (to follow). Calculation methods of the model are presented, including limited range CSE extrapolation and successive approximations used in forecasting. In this paper, the model is applied to rising emissions to project atmospheric PPM (parts-per-million) CO2 accumulation in an unchecked (“business-as-usual”) scenario. In that case, the model forecasts that emissions will reach 17 GtC/yr by 2034. Net atmospheric CO2 accumulation would reach 450 ppm in 2029 (in agreement with IPCC-AR5/RCP8.5 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – 5th Assessment Report/Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5)) and 500 ppm by 2038. This illustrates the need for high impact intervention.

Keywords: CO2, Climate, Model, Emissions, Sinks, Sequestration

International Journal of Climate Change: Impacts and Responses, Volume 8, Issue 1, March 2016, pp.1-10. Article: Print (Spiral Bound). Published online: December 11, 2015 (Article: Electronic (PDF File; 528.778KB)).

Dr. Robert C. Fry

Chief Scientific Officer, Founder, Director, Climate Restoration Technologies, Inc., Omaha, Nebraska, USA

Madeline Ison

Co-founder/Co-inventor, Climate Restoration Technologies, Inc., Omaha, Nebraska, USA

Dr. Sambhudas Chaudhuri

Senior Scientist of Geology, Climate Restoration Technologies, Inc., Omaha, Nebraska, USA

Dr. Kenneth Klabunde

Chief Executive Officer, Climate Restoration Technologies, Inc., Omaha, Nebraska, USA

Dr. Gregory Fry

Director, Chief Financial Officer, Climate Restoration Technologies, Inc., Omaha, Nebraska, USA

Barry Wroobel

Engineer, Co-inventor, Climate Restoration Technologies, Inc., Omaha, Nebraska, USA

Dr. Michael Routh

Chairman, Director, Climate Restoration Technologies, Inc., Omaha, Nebraska, USA


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