Small Farmer Adaptation to Climate Change in Nigeria: Multivariate Probit Analysis of Crop Choice

By John Chiwuzulum Odozi and Timothy Taiwo Awoyemi.

Published by The International Journal of Climate Change: Impacts and Responses

Format Price
Article: Print $US10.00
Published Online: November 10, 2015 $US5.00

The article examined the type of crops farmers are likely to choose and how the decision is linked to climate. General Houshold Survey data on smallholder farms collected by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in 2010 was used with baseline climate observations (1950-2000) and projections (2000-2050) of the World Clim Data Base (WCDB) - global climate data depository for all countries. Complementary data on population, soil and altitude for each Local Government Area (LGA) were sourced from National Population Commission and Food and Agriculture Organisation. Variables from WCDB were Mean Temperature (MT) and Precipitation (MP). Baseline MP increased the probability of cultivating sorghum (0.5%), cowpea (0.2%), and yam (0.1%) while it reduced the probability of cultivating millet (0.8%), rice (0.1%), cassava (0.14%) and maize (0.5%). Baseline MT increased the probability of cultivating millet (5.8%), rice (2.4%) and maize (51.5%) and reduced the probability of cultivating sorghum (0.7%), cowpea (2.1%), cassava (0.7%) and yam (36.7%). Projected MT reduced the probability of cultivating all crops with the highest probability of reduced cultivation on sorghum (10.52%). While the effect of projected MP on the probability of cultivation was mixed, the highest probability of reduced cultivation was observed for rice (25.89%).

Keywords: Climate Change Adaptation, Vulnerability, Small Agriculture, Crop Substitution, Crop Diversity

International Journal of Climate Change: Impacts and Responses, Volume 7, Issue 4, December 2015, pp.1-12. Article: Print (Spiral Bound). Published Online: November 10, 2015 (Article: Electronic (PDF File; 1.511MB)).

John Chiwuzulum Odozi

Doctoral Candidate, Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture and Forestry, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Oyo, Nigeria

Prof. Timothy Taiwo Awoyemi

Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture and Forestry, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Oyo, Nigeria


Reviews:

There are currently no reviews of this product.

Write a Review