|Published online: November 6, 2014||$US5.00|
This study examines the impact of climate and agriculture factors such as temperature, rain fall and water availability on agriculture (fruit crops) production with the support of Vector Auto Regressive (VAR) econometric approach based upon time series data over the period of 44 years from 1966-2009. This study also captures the trend of climate change impact on fruit crops production for the phase 2010-2020. Initially, it has been observed that average temperature and rainfall have no unit root while water availability and fruit crops output have a unit root at 1% level of significance through Augmented Duckey Fuller (ADF) test. The econometric results reveal that change in global climate has an adverse impact on Pakistan agriculture (fruit crops) production. In 2020, additional increase in the level of average temperature would reduce the fruit crops production whereas water availability and average rainfall are positively correlated with fruit crops production in Pakistan. Greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions will rise global warming resulting the occurrence and intensity of extreme events such as flood, drought, cyclone that would further harm the agriculture production and affect the water balance in future.
|Keywords:||Green House Gases; Climate change, ADF test, Vector Auto Regressive (VAR) Model|
International Journal of Climate Change: Impacts and Responses, Volume 6, Issue 1, pp.21-31. Article: Print (Spiral Bound). Published online: November 6, 2014 (Article: Electronic (PDF File; 782.645KB)).
Student, Economics & Finance, Institute of Business Management (IoBM), Karchi, Pakistan
Professor, Environment & Energy, Institute of Business Management (IoBM), Karachi, Pakistan
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