Uncertainty in Climate Change Impact Studies: A Review of Developments and Limitations

By Teang Shui Lee, Hadi Galavi and Yuk Feng Huang.

Published by The International Journal of Climate Change: Impacts and Responses

Format Price
Article: Print $US10.00
Published online: November 6, 2014 $US5.00

Uncertainty in climate change impact studies stem from many sources, wherein it is a difficult task to represent and quantify the whole range of associated uncertainties. Recently, a great deal of studies in climate change have focused on the uncertainty analysis and modeling. Current debate centers on the contribution of the various sources of uncertainty and their interplay—emission scenarios, general circulation models (GCM), downscaling methods, hydrological models towards the final uncertainty quantum. However, there is a common agreement on the utmost importance of emission scenarios and GCM uncertainties in this context. Diverse researches have discussed the influence of other sources of uncertainty and notable discrepancies in their results necessitate the review of findings in this regard. Application of multiple GCMs in the impact studies is generally recognized as a resolution to GCMs uncertainty control. Several methods have been developed to analyze and model the resulting uncertainty due to multiple GCMs utilization. Methods such as generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) and reliability ensemble averaging (REA) methods have gained considerable attention among the researchers. The present paper with focus on the available uncertainty quantification and modeling techniques, discusses the limitations and opportunities in converging all sources of uncertainty via a single model.

Keywords: Climate Change, Uncertainty

International Journal of Climate Change: Impacts and Responses, Volume 6, Issue 1, pp.1-10. Article: Print (Spiral Bound). Published online: November 6, 2014 (Article: Electronic (PDF File; 858.641KB)).

Teang Shui Lee

Professor, Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Putra Malaysia, Sri Serdang, Selangor Darul Ehsan, Malaysia

Dr Lee Teang Shui is professional engineer in Malaysia and currently a senior academic staff and has more than 30 years of engagement in academics and research. His field of interest is on water resources engineering encompassing hydraulics and hydrology. He has supervised more than 40 postgraduate foreign and local students all in the field of water resources and management including irrigation and drainage, crop water requirements, evapotranspiration, changes and impacts of watershed climate change, hydrology and hydraulics. He has written many papers related to his work and has also published four books including one on uncertainties in hydrosystems. He is also actively engaged with the engineering fraternity and regulatory organizations

Hadi Galavi

Doctoral Canadiadte, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Putra Malaysia, Sri Serdang, Selangor Darul Ehsan, Malaysia

Dr. Yuk Feng Huang

Assistant Professor, Department of Civil engineering, Universiti Tuanku Abdul Rahman, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia


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